End Of Coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19): 36 Months or 18 Months?

End of Coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19): 36 Months or 18 Months? | Copyright © 2020 By Raphael Christopher, a senior member of the Nigerian Bar Association (NBA)

Oxford University Standard for Citation of Legal Authorities (OSCOLA) citation: Raphael Christopher, ‘End of Coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19): 36 Months or 18 Months?’ (2020) Nigerian Legal Research Forum <https://nigerianlawyersdirectory.com/research/end-of-coronavirus-2019-covid-19-36-months-or-18-months/> (date of access)

The American philosopher George Santayana, in his famous quote that is often wrongly credited to the English statesman Sir Winston Churchill, declared that “those who cannot remember the past are doomed to repeat it”.

So, what does history tell us? The nearest event equalling the current Coronavirus pandemic is the Spanish flu. This disease lasted almost 36 months from January 1918 to December 1920. It is estimated to have infected about a third of the world’s population at the time. The number of people estimated to have died as a result of this sickness was about 500 million. This fact of a third of the world’s population being infected and the large number of deaths sparked an ominous comparison with the four horsemen of the Apocalypse as foretold in the Book of Revelation in the Bible.

Here we are almost 100 years after the Spanish flu and this coronavirus pandemic—a similar disease—has struck, prompting another comparison of the validation of the biblical saying that “there is nothing new under the sun” in the Bible Book of Ecclesiastes.

A careful study of the responses of governments worldwide to the Spanish flu reveals that there was no coherent and coordinated response. Rather, it was a mixture of groundless optimism, politics, public relations (PR) stunts, hidden agendas, political infighting, contradictory statements, shallow medical testing, and using the wrong drugs of varying efficacy. This ragged response was the main reason the Spanish flu lasted as long, and killed as many people, as it did.

An even more careful examination of the Spanish flu pandemic reveals that people were tested and countries were in lockdown for several months on phase one, then the lockdown was eased and finally lifted. However, what happened then was that the people who were free of the disease then came into contact with those who had the disease previously and they were infected, after which the second phase began and countries found that the rate of infections rose. We see this trend in Germany that has eased restrictions and the infection rate and death rate have risen again. The same is experienced by Spain as well.

What history and science teach us is that the principle of a combination of evolution, adaptation and mutations applies to all species. We see this shown most vividly in the current fight against malaria which kills more people than coronavirus but is not given the same profile because of many unacceptable reasons. The mosquito has adapted itself to counter the malaria drugs and render the drugs available in the 1960’s, 1970’s and 1980’s largely ineffective. The malaria fever has adapted itself to combat the malaria vaccine by reducing its effectiveness. Governments and scientists in their fight to source a vaccine against the coronavirus disease must bear this in mind.

Another consideration is the lack of recognition that a momentous paradigm shift has occurred. Things will never be the same again. Efforts were being made by Governments from the perspective as if everything will be the same again and they were wrong. Things will never be the same again. This time, the world that globalisation has made a global village sees the effects of the disease, suffers the effects of the pandemic, and grieves for loved ones who, but for the pandemic, would be alive.

The next consideration is the time it would take to source a vaccine. Usually, in the scientific community, a year to 18 months is usually used as a rule of thumb to determine how long it would take to design, test and manufacture a suitable vaccine.

Another consideration is the mental health of current population. The pandemic’s biggest strength is the inducing of irrational fear.  Fear is useful in determining dangerous situations and your response to them to preserve your life or the lives of your loved ones. We see a clear demonstration of this in the mass hysteria of panic buying and fights over toilet rolls as seen in the news and on social media.

Not only that, we have also the considerable economic devastation wrought by this pandemic. Virtually all governments are borrowing, and they are borrowing big. This will cause most governments to be in trillions of dollars in debt now and in the future, and this debt will have to be repaid at some point. Therefore, many, many decades of repayment await virtually all the world’s economy and society. The pandemic has mortgaged the future generations’ financial futures.

This last consideration is where the biggest mistakes were made. Most governments rushed to open their economy for business and with that many employees and people were returned back to work; and with the evolution and mutations of the virus, the infection rate rose again and more casualties and fatalities ensued.

Given the lessons of history, what then may be suggested in the light of these factors and considerations?

First and foremost, during this pandemic is the attitude of caution. A cautious approach is needed. There is no proven vaccine available yet that meets human needs; and this needs to be communicated to society, so people do not treat this disease with levity.

Secondly, society ought to be communicated to regularly, updated every day from the highest level; and advised to be cautious and not gung-ho or too risk averse, but somewhere in the middle.

Thirdly, society should be communicated to and be made to observe social distancing, quarantine and self-isolation for their own protection at all times.

Four, the mental health of society should be a key consideration to counter the negative mental effects of self-isolation and quarantine on the people. There should be regular contacts and conversations with the most vulnerable and lonely of our society. It is often the loneliness that many people suffer when they self-isolate. We should be each other’s keepers by reaching out and making sure everyone is okay around our circle of influence.

Five, a specific cross-disciplines body comprising of medical experts, disease experts, information technology (IT) experts, historians, teachers, researchers, economists, bankers, etc. ought to be created and dedicated to dealing with this pandemic. That body should be given adequate powers and resources to deal with the pandemic.

Why a cross-disciplines body? This body is necessary because this pandemic, as shown, has many sectors of influence in society and only experts in those areas can pull on their knowledge and harness the combined intelligence, information and experience to tackle this multi-headed monster called COVID-19.

This cross-disciplines body should be visibly chaired by the President or Governors and should give daily briefings to the public to reassure them and help stop any panic and unfounded rumours, especially among the most vulnerable of the society.

The modalities of this cross-disciplines body should have its main purpose to track everyone, test everyone, isolate those with the disease, and then treat with the vaccine once it is developed.

In the meantime, when you consider the above issues that happened during the Spanish flu and the time of 36 months that it took to contain it, we would hope that with the sheer amount of technological progress and advancements and tools we now have at our disposal, it would not be out of place to suggest realistically and hope that this COVID-19 would last for 18 months or less.

But when COVID-19 is conquered, there still will be no more normal. Society would have changed, evolved and adapted in ways we would not have predicted.

Yet, life will continue in a new normal. World without end.

Copyright © 2020 By Raphael Christopher

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Nigerian Legal Research Editor

Dr. Leesi Ebenezer Mitee
Doctor of Philosophy (PhD) in International Human Rights Law, Legal Informatics (the application of information technology to legal processes and legal information systems), Indigenous Customary Law, and Indigenous Rights